Richard Golian

1995-born. Charles University alum. Head of Performance at Mixit. 10+ years in marketing and data.

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Richard Golian

Hi, I am Richard. On this blog I share my thoughts, not investment advice. This is not a recommendation to buy or sell securities.

A Middle-Class Confidence Crisis Could Trigger the Next Stock Market Crash

AI job losses, stock crash

By Richard Golian

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When someone loses their job, their sense of security collapses, and their belief that hard work guarantees a decent life is shattered, they sell their stocks either immediately—because they must—or as soon as the prices start falling. This reaction is quite probable.

In this post, I will describe a black scenario with a non-negligible probability. I sincerely hope it never materializes.

The scenario revolves around the potential response of the middle class—who actively invest in stocks—to changes caused by the rapid advancement of artificial intelligence.

Morning in an open-space office. Petra, a senior marketing manager at a small tech firm, walks between rows of desks, coffee in hand. A notification pops up on Slack: “New AI tool creates an entire campaign in just three clicks—we are launching a pilot.” Petra feels a sharp pinch in her stomach. It is not that she adores writing banners, but behind those banners lie her mortgage payments and her daughter's tuition. At lunchtime, she quietly opens her brokerage app to check her portfolio—the stocks she is been investing 10% of her salary into for years. Her thumb hesitates over the "Sell" button. For now, she resists.

Petra represents countless retail investors among lawyers, IT specialists, accountants, bankers, managers, and doctors—people who regularly invest part of their earnings into index funds, mutual funds, or stocks. To illustrate: in the U.S. stock market, this group accounts for a substantial share of daily trading volume—estimates suggest the lower double-digit percentages. Collective actions from this group—mass selling or buying simultaneously—can significantly shake stock prices.

Imagine a chain of events: negative headlines about layoffs due to AI appear increasingly often, starting with economic news titles like “Automation Eliminates More Jobs.” The fundamental belief of the middle class—that diligence ensures a decent life—begins to crumble.

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Disclaimer

This article is intended for informational and educational purposes only. It does not constitute financial advice, a recommendation to buy or sell any securities, or a guarantee of future market performance. The views expressed are solely those of the author, who may also be an investor. Investing in financial markets involves risk, and each reader should make their own decisions independently and, if necessary, consult with a licensed professional.

Summary

What happens when millions of middle-class workers — who also happen to be retail investors — start losing confidence in their own economic future? AI-driven job displacement may not crash the market through corporate fundamentals. It may crash it through psychology. When the belief that diligence ensures a decent life erodes, the sell-off follows.
Richard Golian

If you have any thoughts, questions, or feedback, feel free to drop me a message at mail@richardgolian.com.

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Common questions on this article's topic

How could AI-driven job losses trigger a stock market crash?
The article describes a chain reaction: as AI displaces middle-class workers who are also retail investors, they are forced to sell their investments — either because they need cash to cover expenses or because fear erodes their confidence in the market. This selling triggers algorithmic responses and stop-loss cascades, which amplify the decline. Social media then spreads panic to every feed, accelerating more sell-offs. The result is a self-reinforcing downward spiral.
What share of stock market trading comes from retail investors?
In the article, retail investors are described as accounting for a substantial share of daily trading volume in the lower double-digit percentages. Official SIFMA data puts the figure at approximately 18% of total US market volume in 2024, though other methodologies estimate higher figures. The key point is that collective action by this group — mass selling or buying simultaneously — can significantly move stock prices.
What is a stop-loss cascade?
A stop-loss is an automatic order that sells a stock when its price drops below a set threshold. When many investors have stop-losses set at similar levels, a price decline can trigger a wave of automatic selling, which pushes prices lower, triggering more stop-losses — creating a cascade. This mechanism was documented during the 2010 Flash Crash, when algorithmic responses to mass selling caused prices to plunge within minutes.
How does social media amplify financial panic?
In the article, social media is described as injecting adrenaline into society's bloodstream during a sell-off. Algorithms on platforms like TikTok push emotionally charged financial content, Twitter floods with charts showing plunging prices, and Facebook becomes a carousel of crisis articles. Research confirms that social media sentiment predicts market movements, and that emotionally charged financial content spreads faster than measured analysis.
Could the belief that hard work guarantees a decent life actually collapse?
This is the central concern of the article. When middle-class professionals — lawyers, IT specialists, accountants, managers — see their roles being automated not because they failed but because they were replaced, their fundamental belief in the social contract erodes. The article argues that this psychological shift may matter more than the actual job losses, because it changes investment behaviour across an entire demographic simultaneously.
Is this scenario likely to happen?
The article explicitly calls it a black scenario with a non-negligible probability and expresses hope that it never materialises. It is not presented as a prediction but as a plausible chain of events that deserves serious consideration. Each individual link in the chain — AI job displacement, forced asset sales, algorithmic cascades, social media amplification — is already documented. The question is whether they converge.