Richard Golian

1995-born. Charles University alum. Head of Performance at Mixit. 10+ years in marketing and data.

#myjourney #myfamily #health #cognition #philosophy #digital #artificialintelligence #darkness #security #finance #politics #banskabystrica #carpathians

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AI sales forecast: 9 traps so far

Yesterday I could not tear myself away from the computer. When I lifted my head, it was half past eight in the evening. I had been sitting alone upstairs for about three hours.
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Will AI take my job?

Will AI take my job? A certified Google trainer told me in June 2024 that my profession would cease to exist. Twenty-two months later, my job title has not changed — but ninety percent of what I do during the day is different. I have delegated more of my thinking to AI agents than I thought possible. I am not afraid. This is why, and what it means for anyone asking the same question.
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€50,000 Quote vs. Two Hours with Claude Code

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Richard Golian

Hi, I am Richard. On this blog I share my thoughts, not investment advice. This is not a recommendation to buy or sell securities.

What am I investing in today? That question must be preceded by another one.

Global index fund investment strategy

By Richard Golian

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April 2025

I often get asked what I am doing with my finances this year. My answer is simple: almost nothing. Back in December and January, as I have written on this blog before, I gradually increased the cash portion of my portfolio. And frankly, I do not really care whether the market moves up or down in the short term.

I am not participating in the current market action at all, because there are some fundamental questions I still do not have answers to. If you are thinking long-term about investing, one essential question is: What will the world look like in 2040?

I could pour all of my mental capacity into figuring that out, connect every field I have ever studied (and there have been quite a few), and I still would not have an answer. I am not even inclined to speak in terms of probabilities — high or low. Honestly, I have no clue. The best I can do is share a sense, a personal impression of where things might be headed. But even that sense needs boundaries.

For example: it seems to me that if birth rates stay roughly where they are for the next 15 years, Europe will continue to age. It is quite possible that more than a third of its population will be over 60. Europe will have the oldest population of any major world economy.

On the other hand, India will have the youngest. Its population will be significantly larger than it is today. But here comes the real question: will this be an advantage for India?

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Disclaimer

This article is intended for informational and educational purposes only. It does not constitute financial advice, a recommendation to buy or sell any securities, or a guarantee of future market performance. The views expressed are solely those of the author, who may also be an investor. Investing in financial markets involves risk, and each reader should make their own decisions independently and, if necessary, consult with a licensed professional.

Summary

In 2025, I am doing almost nothing. Cash allocation is up. Before asking what to invest in, ask what the world will look like in 2040. Europe will be the oldest major economy. India will have the youngest population. The answer to that question shapes everything else.
Richard Golian

If you have any thoughts, questions, or feedback, feel free to drop me a message at mail@richardgolian.com.

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Common questions on this article's topic

Why is doing almost nothing a valid investment strategy?
In the article, the decision to hold more cash and reduce market exposure in early 2025 is based on a simple premise: when you cannot answer fundamental questions about what the world will look like in 15 years, you lack the basis to evaluate whether current market sentiment is justified. Rather than guessing, the approach is to wait for prices that make sense and invest more in personal projects where the returns are more predictable.
What will the world look like in 2040 and why does it matter for investing?
This is the central question of the article — and one that has no clear answer. If birth rates remain roughly stable, Europe will be among the oldest major economies. India will have a much larger and younger population. But whether a young population translates to prosperity depends on the structure of the economy — and AI may fundamentally change that equation. Without answers to these questions, long-term investment decisions lack a solid foundation.
Why might Europe's aging population affect investment returns?
If current demographic trends continue, more than a third of Europe's population could be over 60 within 15 years. An aging population typically means slower economic growth, higher healthcare costs, and a shrinking workforce. For investors, this raises questions about whether European markets can deliver the same returns they have historically — and whether capital should be allocated differently.
Is India a good investment opportunity because of its young population?
Not necessarily. In the article, this assumption is questioned directly. A large young population has traditionally been an economic advantage, but AI may change the equation. If automation reduces the need for human labour, a young population may not translate into productivity or GDP growth the way it has historically. The honest answer presented in the article is: I do not know.
What are global index funds and why are they the default for uncertainty?
Global index funds invest in hundreds or thousands of companies across the world through a single purchase, providing maximum diversification. In the article, they are chosen as the default allocation precisely because of uncertainty — when you cannot predict which regions or sectors will outperform, spreading your investment across the entire global economy reduces the risk of being concentrated in the wrong place.
Why invest in yourself instead of the stock market?
In the article, self-investment is described as the one category of investment that has never been regretted. When market valuations are high and the future is deeply uncertain, directing resources toward personal skills, projects, and growth offers returns that are both more predictable and more immediately rewarding. The shift from 50% equities to more diversified allocation including self-investment reflects this philosophy.