What am I investing in today? That question must be preceded by another one.

April 2025

I often get asked what I’m doing with my finances this year. My answer is simple: almost nothing. Back in December and January, as I’ve written on this blog before, I gradually increased the cash portion of my portfolio. And frankly, I don’t really care whether the market moves up or down in the short term.

I'm not participating in the current market action at all, because there are some fundamental questions I still don’t have answers to. If you’re thinking long-term about investing, one essential question is: What will the world look like in 2040?

I could pour all of my mental capacity into figuring that out, connect every field I’ve ever studied (and there have been quite a few), and I still wouldn’t have an answer. I’m not even inclined to speak in terms of probabilities — high or low. Honestly, I have no clue. The best I can do is share a sense, a personal impression of where things might be headed. But even that sense needs boundaries.

For example: it seems to me that if birth rates stay roughly where they are for the next 15 years, Europe will continue to age. It’s quite possible that more than a third of its population will be over 60. Europe will have the oldest population of any major world economy.

On the other hand, India will have the youngest. Its population will be significantly larger than it is today. But here comes the real question: will this be an advantage for India?

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