Richard Golian

1995-born. Charles University alum. Head of Performance at Mixit. 10+ years in marketing and data.

#myjourney #myfamily #health #cognition #philosophy #digital #artificialintelligence #darkness #security #finance #politics #banskabystrica #carpathians

Castellano Slovenčina

Manage subscription Choose a plan

RSS
Follow new articles
Newsletter
New articles to your inbox

AI sales forecast: 9 traps so far

Yesterday I could not tear myself away from the computer. When I lifted my head, it was half past eight in the evening. I had been sitting alone upstairs for about three hours.
25 April 2026 292

Will AI take my job?

Will AI take my job? A certified Google trainer told me in June 2024 that my profession would cease to exist. Twenty-two months later, my job title has not changed — but ninety percent of what I do during the day is different. I have delegated more of my thinking to AI agents than I thought possible. I am not afraid. This is why, and what it means for anyone asking the same question.
23 April 2026 168

€50,000 Quote vs. Two Hours with Claude Code

One hour. Fifty-five minutes. That is how long it took to build what a Czech software firm had quoted at over €50,000. I built it with Claude Code. Not a prototype. Not a proof of concept. A working tool — the one the company actually needed. By the evening of the same day, it was running on staging. This is not about Claude Code. It is about what Claude Code exposes.
18 April 2026 484
Manage subscription · Choose a plan
Richard Golian

Hi, I am Richard. On this blog I share my thoughts, not investment advice. This is not a recommendation to buy or sell securities.

Stock Market Optimism and Media Manipulation

How financial media misleads investors

By Richard Golian

Listen to this article
0:00 / 0:00

January 2025

Yesterday, I witnessed a glaring example of media misinformation while watching a Slovak TV channel. During the prime-time news, the report confidently claimed that the growth of the S&P 500 index was directly tied to the growth of corporate earnings. Accompanied by charts of recent stock price developments, this narrative was presented as fact—but it was nothing more than an overly optimistic distortion. It was yet another example of the excessive optimism I highlighted in December 2024.

The reality tells a very different story. Over the past two years, the earnings of American companies in the S&P 500 index have not kept pace with their share prices. Stock prices have risen dramatically faster, resulting in a historically high price-to-earnings (PE) ratio. This valuation metric, which is public and readily accessible, reflects heightened expectations for future earnings growth—expectations now at historically elevated levels.

The market is brimming with optimism—but is it truly justified?

Such a wide gap between share prices and underlying earnings often signals trouble ahead. Whether through price corrections or long-term stagnation, the current market dynamic suggests that this optimism may soon face a harsh reality.

As I wrote before, this is not a reason to panic, but it is a reason to pause, ask questions, and ensure decisions are based on facts rather than narratives.

Disclaimer

This article is intended for informational and educational purposes only. It does not constitute financial advice, a recommendation to buy or sell any securities, or a guarantee of future market performance. The views expressed are solely those of the author, who may also be an investor. Investing in financial markets involves risk, and each reader should make their own decisions independently and, if necessary, consult with a licensed professional.

Summary

A Slovak TV report claimed S&P 500 growth correlates directly with earnings growth. It does not. Prices have risen faster than earnings, creating historically elevated P/E ratios. Large gaps between prices and earnings typically precede corrections. Question the claims. Base decisions on verifiable data.
Richard Golian

If you have any thoughts, questions, or feedback, feel free to drop me a message at mail@richardgolian.com.

Newsletter

New articles to your inbox

Related articles

#finance #digital

AI as a Threat to Banks, Markets, and the Global Financial System

It is real, growing, and potentially devastating.
21 February 2025 1 913
#politics #darkness

Manipulation of Attention Through Outrage, Anger and Fear

It happens every day. It is happening right now.
23 March 2026 916
#finance #data

The Risk–Reward Principle I Didn’t Explain Clearly in My Article on Cyclical Opportunities

If I take a certain risk, how much can I gain — and how much can I lose?
1 March 2026 577
#artificialintelligence #performancemarketing

AI sales forecast: 9 traps so far

Yesterday I could not tear myself away from the computer. When I lifted my head, it was half past eight in the evening. I had been sitting alone upstairs for about three hours.
25 April 2026 292
#artificialintelligence #performancemarketing

Will AI take my job?

Will AI take my job? A certified Google trainer told me in June 2024 that my profession would cease to exist. Twenty-two months later, my job title has not changed — but ninety percent of what I do during the day is different. I have delegated more of my thinking to AI agents than I thought possible. I am not afraid. This is why, and what it means for anyone asking the same question.
23 April 2026 168
#digital #artificialintelligence

€50,000 Quote vs. Two Hours with Claude Code

One hour. Fifty-five minutes. That is how long it took to build what a Czech software firm had quoted at over €50,000. I built it with Claude Code. Not a prototype. Not a proof of concept. A working tool — the one the company actually needed. By the evening of the same day, it was running on staging. This is not about Claude Code. It is about what Claude Code exposes.
18 April 2026 484
#artificialintelligence #performancemarketing

Is AI Making Us Dumber?

I have conducted roughly one hundred and fifty practical interviews over the past four years. Fifty for data specialist roles. A hundred for advertising and performance marketing specialists. Almost every one of them involved sitting down with a candidate over a practical task — something close to a real problem we actually need to solve at the company. Not theory. Not trivia. Applied problem-solving. Over time, I started noticing a pattern.
14 April 2026 404
#digital #artificialintelligence

What AI Hides From You

Before you can teach AI to understand anything, you need to see what it is hiding from you.
11 April 2026 412
#digital #artificialintelligence

When Your AI Agent Joins the Team

The moment other people needed access to it, the problem changed completely. It was no longer about whether the agent could learn. It was about who gets to teach it.
8 April 2026 411
#digital #artificialintelligence

Training an AI Agent That Learns Between Sessions

I wanted to build an agent that doesn't just assist. One that acts.
4 April 2026 621
#politics #slovakia

Slovakia's Economy in 2026

What happened — and how can it be reversed?
28 March 2026 1 071
#politics #darkness

We Are Weak and They Know It

Manipulation without the feeling of being manipulated is the most effective kind.
28 February 2026 1 088
#digital #artificialintelligence

Local AI Model Limitations: Why I Switched from Ollama to Claude for Autonomous Agents

This is what I learned about local vs cloud AI, and why I switched to Claude Code.
3 April 2026 973

Common questions on this article's topic

Can financial media present misleading narratives about the stock market?
Yes. In the article, a specific example is described: a Slovak TV channel claimed during prime-time news that S&P 500 growth was directly tied to earnings growth. But the data showed the opposite — stock prices had risen dramatically faster than earnings over the previous two years, creating historically elevated P/E ratios. Research confirms that financial media bias is documented, with coverage varying significantly by outlet and influencing trading behaviour.
What does a high price-to-earnings ratio actually tell us?
A high P/E ratio means investors are paying more for each unit of company earnings than they have historically. In the article, this is described as reflecting heightened expectations for future earnings growth — expectations that by early 2025 had reached historically elevated levels. The CAPE ratio stood at approximately 38, the forward P/E at roughly 22x against an 18x historical median. These metrics are publicly accessible but rarely discussed in mainstream financial news.
How do financial media amplify unjustified market optimism?
In the article, a specific mechanism is described: confident TV reports accompanied by charts present distortions as fact, and viewers who lack the tools to verify accept these narratives. Research shows that journalist connections to company management lead to more favourable coverage, media disproportionately highlights dramatic developments, and politically polarised outlets frame financial news differently. The result is a feedback loop where media optimism reinforces market optimism — even when the underlying data tells a different story.
How can investors protect themselves from media-driven narratives?
In the article, the recommendation is to base decisions on verifiable data rather than media stories. P/E ratios, CAPE ratios, and earnings growth figures are publicly accessible. Comparing what the media claims with what the numbers actually show is the simplest defence against misleading narratives. The core principle remains: ask what you are getting for the price you are paying, and verify the answer yourself.
Why do media outlets present overly optimistic financial narratives?
Research shows multiple drivers: journalist connections to company management lead to more favourable coverage, media naturally highlights dramatic developments disproportionately, and politically polarised outlets frame financial news differently. In the article, the specific example illustrates how a confident TV report, accompanied by charts, can present a distortion as fact — misleading viewers who lack the tools or inclination to verify the claims independently.
What was the actual state of the market in early January 2025?
In the article, the market is described as brimming with optimism that appeared unjustified by the fundamentals. Over the preceding two years, American company earnings had not kept pace with share prices. The resulting historically high P/E ratios suggested that a significant portion of the market's value was based on hope for future growth rather than current performance. Whether through price corrections or long-term stagnation, the current dynamic was described as unlikely to sustain itself.