Article
It is no secret that the stock market is primarily driven by two sentiments: the fear of evil and hope for good. Within these broad emotions, we encounter speculation on rising share prices and the anticipation of future earnings. Conversely, we also find the fear of falling stock prices, economic crises, recessions, and collapses.
I devoted part of my university studies to understanding moods—what they are and how they change. Therefore, it is not surprising that this topic also interests me in the context of the stock market.
How I analyse the stock market
A mood directed towards the future, such as hope for growth or fear of downturns, can be observed through various data. I find it logical to track asset prices within specific segments (geographical or sectoral) in relation to how these segments generate earnings and their value. I compare this data with historical data within the same segment, data from other segments, and the entire stock market's performance.
I use data published by various indexes and ETF funds. As you might gather, I am not analysing individual shares but collections of shares grouped by specific criteria (read more about stock indexes and ETFs). Since 2022, I have been tracking this data, documenting what the media says about the economy and the stock market, and noting factors that could influence sentiments. This forms my “mood thermometer.”
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Disclaimer
This article is intended for informational and educational purposes only. It does not constitute financial advice, a recommendation to buy or sell any securities, or a guarantee of future market performance. The views expressed are solely those of the author, who may also be an investor. Investing in financial markets involves risk, and each reader should make their own decisions independently and, if necessary, consult with a licensed professional.
Summary
Common questions on this article's topic
What drives stock market prices — fundamentals or emotions?
What is the Fear and Greed Index?
What are the most common behavioural biases in investing?
What does it mean when stock prices are detached from earnings?
Is buying when there is fear a good investment strategy?
How can I manage my emotional reactions to market fluctuations?
If you have any thoughts, questions, or feedback, feel free to drop me a message at mail@richardgolian.com.
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